Will diesel prices go down in 2024Will diesel prices go down in 2024

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Diesel fuel retail prices per month in the U.S. 2022-2024

In January 2024, one gallon of diesel cost an average of 3.85 U.S. dollars in the United States. That was a decrease compared to the same month the previous year.

Impact of Russia-Ukraine war and current events on diesel prices

Diesel prices rose significantly throughout the last two years due to supply constraints in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and transportation issues related to low water levels on the Mississippi river. Global supply constraints also resulted in the West Texas Intermediate price trading at decade highs.

Diesel and gasoline price development

The usage of distillate fuel oil began in the 1930s, but until further development in the 1960s, diesel vehicles were mostly applied to commercial use only. In the U.S., diesel-powered cars remain a fairly small portion of the automobile market and diesel consumption is far lower than gasoline consumption. In general, gasoline also tends to be more widely available than diesel fuel and usually sells for a lower retail price. However, diesel engines have better fuel economy than gasoline engines, and as such tend to be used for large commercial vehicles.

Monthly retail prices for diesel fuel in the United States from January 2022 to January 2024 (in U.S. dollars per gallon)

CharacteristicPrice in U.S. dollars per gallon
Jan ’243.85
Dec ’233.97
Nov ’234.25
Oct ’234.51
Sep ’234.56
Aug ’234.37
Jul ’233.88
Jun ’233.8
May ’233.92
Apr ’234.1
Mar ’234.21
Feb ’234.41
Jan ’234.58
Dec ’224.71
Nov ’225.26
Oct ’225.21
Sep ’224.99
Aug ’225.01
Jul ’225.49
Jun ’225.75
May ’225.57
Apr ’225.12
Mar ’225.11
Feb ’224.03
Jan ’223.72

January 2022 to January 2024

ExxonMobil’s operating revenue 2001-2022

BP’s operating revenue 2005-2022

Number of gasoline stations in the United States 2014-2017

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Statistics on ” Gas stations in the U.S. “

  • Gasoline station industry in the U.S. – gross output 2000-2020
  • United States: gasoline station sales 1992-2022
  • United States: gas stations monthly sales 2018 to 2023
  • United States: motor fuel sales in convenience stores 2014-2021
  • United States: amount of motor fuel sold at c-stores 2011-2021
  • Gasoline retail price per month in the U.S. 2022-2024, by fuel grade
  • Diesel fuel retail prices per month in the U.S. 2022-2024
  • U.S. automotive dealers and gas stations ad spend 2021-2022
  • Motor gas market share of the leading gas station chains in the United States in 2019
  • United States: top private convenience stores and gas stations in 2023, by revenue
  • United States: retail fuel sales of Speedway 2016-2020
  • United States: retail merchandise sales of Speedway 2016-2021
  • Alimentation Couche-Tard’s fuel sales worldwide 2017-2023, by region
  • Fuel sales volume of Alimentation Couche-Tard in the U.S. 2017-2022
  • Alimentation Couche-Tard: merchandise and service revenues FY201- FY2022, by region
  • Number of gasoline stations in the United States 2014-2017
  • United States: outlet market share of the leading gas station chains in 2019
  • Gas station count of the leading fuel retailers in the United States in 2019
  • Fuel station count of Circle K in the United States from 2016 to 2019
  • United States: fuel station count of Speedway 2016-2021
  • Fuel station count of QuikTrip in the United States from 2016 to 2019
  • Brand market share of gas in the United States in 2019
  • Shell’s revenue 2010-2022
  • Shell’s revenue breakdown by region 2010-2022
  • ExxonMobil’s operating revenue 2001-2022
  • Chevron’s operating revenue 2010-2022
  • United States: retail revenue of Speedway 2016-2019
  • BP’s operating revenue 2005-2022
  • United States: gasoline station per capita retail sales 2000-2021
  • Footfall ratio of medium U.S. fuel and convenience retailers 2018
  • Payment type preference at gas stations in the U.S. 2018

Other statistics that may interest you Gas stations in the U.S.

  • Premium Statistic Gasoline station industry in the U.S. – gross output 2000-2020
  • Basic Statistic United States: gasoline station sales 1992-2022
  • Premium Statistic United States: gas stations monthly sales 2018 to 2023
  • Basic Statistic United States: motor fuel sales in convenience stores 2014-2021
  • Basic Statistic United States: amount of motor fuel sold at c-stores 2011-2021
  • Basic Statistic Gasoline retail price per month in the U.S. 2022-2024, by fuel grade
  • Basic Statistic Diesel fuel retail prices per month in the U.S. 2022-2024
  • Premium Statistic U.S. automotive dealers and gas stations ad spend 2021-2022

Leading gas station chains

  • Premium Statistic Motor gas market share of the leading gas station chains in the United States in 2019
  • Premium Statistic United States: top private convenience stores and gas stations in 2023, by revenue
  • Basic Statistic United States: retail fuel sales of Speedway 2016-2020
  • Basic Statistic United States: retail merchandise sales of Speedway 2016-2021
  • Basic Statistic Alimentation Couche-Tard’s fuel sales worldwide 2017-2023, by region
  • Basic Statistic Fuel sales volume of Alimentation Couche-Tard in the U.S. 2017-2022
  • Basic Statistic Alimentation Couche-Tard: merchandise and service revenues FY201- FY2022, by region
  • Premium Statistic Number of gasoline stations in the United States 2014-2017
  • Premium Statistic United States: outlet market share of the leading gas station chains in 2019
  • Premium Statistic Gas station count of the leading fuel retailers in the United States in 2019
  • Premium Statistic Fuel station count of Circle K in the United States from 2016 to 2019
  • Premium Statistic United States: fuel station count of Speedway 2016-2021
  • Premium Statistic Fuel station count of QuikTrip in the United States from 2016 to 2019
  • Premium Statistic Brand market share of gas in the United States in 2019
  • Basic Statistic Shell’s revenue 2010-2022
  • Basic Statistic Shell’s revenue breakdown by region 2010-2022
  • Basic Statistic ExxonMobil’s operating revenue 2001-2022
  • Premium Statistic Chevron’s operating revenue 2010-2022
  • Basic Statistic United States: retail revenue of Speedway 2016-2019
  • Premium Statistic BP’s operating revenue 2005-2022
  • Premium Statistic United States: gasoline station per capita retail sales 2000-2021
  • Premium Statistic Footfall ratio of medium U.S. fuel and convenience retailers 2018
  • Premium Statistic Payment type preference at gas stations in the U.S. 2018

Further related statistics

  • Basic Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Belgium 2016-2021
  • Premium Statistic Monthly diesel fuel price in the UK 2020-2022, by region
  • Premium Statistic Monthly consumer price of diesel in Italy 2018-2019
  • Premium Statistic Canada’s diesel fuel price breakdown by cost 2017
  • Premium Statistic Tax share in consumer diesel price in European countries 2018
  • Basic Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in the Netherlands 2016-2021
  • Basic Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Latvia 2016-2021
  • Basic Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Denmark 2016-2021
  • Premium Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Spain 2016-2018
  • Basic Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Lithuania 2016-2021
  • Premium Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in France 2016-2018
  • Basic Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Sweden 2016-2021
  • Premium Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Poland 2016-2023
  • Basic Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Germany 2019-2023
  • Basic Statistic Average monthly diesel prices in Bulgaria 2016-2021
  • Premium Statistic Prices of diesel fuel in Cyprus 2004-2021
  • Premium Statistic Prices of diesel fuel in Spain 2000 to 2021
  • Premium Statistic Diesel price in Italy2017-2018
  • Premium Statistic Prices of diesel fuel in Romania 2008-2021

Statistics

  • Average monthly diesel prices in Belgium 2016-2021
  • Monthly diesel fuel price in the UK 2020-2022, by region
  • Monthly consumer price of diesel in Italy 2018-2019
  • Canada’s diesel fuel price breakdown by cost 2017
  • Tax share in consumer diesel price in European countries 2018
  • Average monthly diesel prices in the Netherlands 2016-2021
  • Average monthly diesel prices in Latvia 2016-2021
  • Average monthly diesel prices in Denmark 2016-2021
  • Average monthly diesel prices in Spain 2016-2018
  • Average monthly diesel prices in Lithuania 2016-2021
  • Average monthly diesel prices in France 2016-2018
  • Average monthly diesel prices in Sweden 2016-2021
  • Average monthly diesel prices in Poland 2016-2023
  • Average monthly diesel prices in Germany 2019-2023
  • Average monthly diesel prices in Bulgaria 2016-2021
  • Prices of diesel fuel in Cyprus 2004-2021
  • Prices of diesel fuel in Spain 2000 to 2021
  • Diesel price in Italy2017-2018
  • Prices of diesel fuel in Romania 2008-2021

Topics

Gas stations in the United States Oil and gasoline prices Motor vehicle production Greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. Oil industry in the U.S.

EIA expects average U.S. gasoline and diesel prices to decrease in 2024 and 2025

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect average U.S. retail gasoline prices to decrease in 2024 because of increased inventories related to increased refinery capacity. In 2025, we expect slightly reduced gasoline consumption to further decrease prices. We expect similar supply-side factors to lower retail diesel prices in 2024 and 2025, although U.S. diesel consumption will likely exceed 2023 in both 2024 and 2025.

We expect crude oil prices in 2024 to be similar to those in 2023. As a result, our lower gasoline and diesel price outlooks next year reflect narrowing crack spreads, the difference between the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel compared with crude oil. Crack spreads reflect the price of refining, and a lower crack spread indicates lower refining cost. Our lower forecast crack spread for gasoline is driven by our expectation of increasing availability of supply even as consumption is reduced.

In 2023, additional refinery capacity came online, raising U.S. operable refinery capacity from 18.06 million barrels per day (b/d) in January 2023 to 18.31 million b/d in December 2023. We expect the availability of the new refinery capacity will ease price pressure on petroleum products in 2024. In 2025, we expect lower crude oil prices, which will also reduce gasoline and diesel prices.

New international production from refineries in the Middle East, particularly Kuwait, have also increased the pool of gasoline and diesel on world markets. Increasing global refined products supply will contribute to easing international price pressure on both fuels. We expect gasoline consumption to remain relatively flat in 2024 and to decrease only slightly in 2025, by less than 1%. In both years, we expect slowing but consistent economic growth. Flat or decreasing gasoline consumption despite economic growth is relatively uncommon. Since 1990, gasoline consumption has declined amid positive economic growth in only two years (2010 and 2012).

Although we expect more diesel production and less strain on U.S. and global inventories to reduce diesel prices in 2024 and 2025, we also expect annual U.S. average diesel consumption to grow modestly, by 1.3%, or about 50,000 b/d, in 2024 supported by continuing economic growth.

Our forecast for gasoline and diesel prices is subject to significant uncertainty, including any factors that might affect crude oil prices and pass through to retail fuel prices. In addition, prices could be higher if more unplanned refinery shutdowns, further disruptions to international trade flows, or new logistical bottlenecks that hinder the movement of fuels between regions occur. By early 2025, we currently expect LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery in Texas will close and Phillips 66’s Rodeo refinery in California will complete its ongoing conversion to renewable diesel production, although the timing of both may vary based on market conditions and the schedules of the owners.

Principal contributor: Kevin Hack